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Dr gregor gysi biographie line dancing history essay scholarships tenali raman movie review behindwoods film this is Dimitri Lascaris reporting for the real news network from Montreal Canada last year major Exxon shareholders Blackrock and Vanguard backed a proposal requiring Exxon to provide analysis of how climate policies will impact its bottom line in an increasingly warming world now Exxon Mobil has issued a climate impact analysis for investors according to the company's report 2018 energy and carbon summary on positioning for a low rate lower carbon energy future world demand for oil could dip substantially by 2040 if policies to curb warming are aggressively implemented so is a transformation of foot in the world of finance is the market becoming increasingly concerned about the overvaluation of fossil fuel assets with us to discuss this I am very pleased to be joined today by Anthony Hobley Anthony is the CEO of london-based think-tank carbon tracker carbon tracker carries out in-depth analysis on the impact of the energy transition on capital markets thank you very much for joining us again Anthony well it's a pleasure is great to be here so the last time I interviewed you Anthony I believe was when we attended the UN climate conference cop 22 in Morocco in 2016 and in your in your view has the attitude of investors toward climate risk changed much much since cop 22 and in particular investor is showing a much greater concern about climate risk disclosure oh it certainly has I mean there's real momentum behind this now I mean it has started obviously with the work that we did I mean that's been picked up by people such as Mark Carney the governor the Bank of England but also chair of the g20 Financial Stability Board and you know in a game-changer was the creation of the task force of climate related disclosure that that's great in itself but the fact that major financial institutions are getting behind this such as Blackrock who've recently written to too many of the companies they owned or managed shares in the decision of the north biggest sovereign wealth fund in the world the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund Sidda whether it drops all oil and gas stocks is already withdrawn from most coal related stocks so we see we see real signals and how real winds of change and this disclosure is is not the normal sort of environmental disclosure it is really disclosure that has a hard financial edge to it trying to understand the financial risks of a business-as-usual pathway and I think it's no longer in the minds of investors just about the policy and action of government it's also a recognition that we're in a technology driven low-carbon transition and that itself can be highly disruptive well let's talk in particular about exons most REITs closure it paints I think it's fair to say a mostly rosy future for the oil and gas industry saying that even aggressive climate policy poses little risk to the company however the report does not address for example the multiple lawsuits facing Exxon and other fossil fuel giants do you think that this is a realistic analysis of the future and the risk that arises from climate policy and in particular do you think that appropriate account is being taken by Exxon of the risks of climate related litigation well there's a couple of questions buried in there you know my flippin answer would be yes and no yes because I think like most of the fossil fuel companies you know the there is now an acceptance of the concept of demand destruction so the fact that there will not be ever-growing demand for their products and the acceptance that there will come a time where they'll we peak tomorrow user talk about peak supply but actually I think what's more realistic now is peak demand I mean as we know fossil fuels have now lost their monopoly on energy generation they're facing competition from ever more efficient and cheaper alternative technologies and that's eating away demand for their products as is you know a drive towards energy efficiency where the a Bluewater exists between us and the likes of Exxon is how quickly we arrive at that point of peak demand we did some modeling with Imperial College here in London in our report you know around the disruptive power of new technologies and we felt even even with weak relatively weak climate policy and we looks a different weak medium level and strong climate policy there are still massive amounts of disruption from the emerging technologies of wind solar battery storage electric vehicles the that the companies have to respond to if the companies responds and they accept that this is happening and they need to go X growth and recalibrate their business models accordingly they can actually create a lot of value as part of the transition but if they deny that or get they get that wrong and continue to expand and develop resources we simply don't need they can destroy a lot of value as many you know u.s. listed coal stocks have done over the last five or six years let's talk about another technology one that Exxon's analysis seems to place a great deal of stock in and that is carbon capture technologies if you think it's a reasonable assumption that those are going to develop quickly enough and effectively enough in order to preserve or prolong the viability of the sustainability of fossil fuels or the major source of energy for the world what do you think the current state of that technology relief it entitles us to expect about the future very little in the energy sector I mean it is a massive red herring and what is frustrating this away which is that many companies use that to imply that there is a magic bullet there isn't even if we develop common capture and storage CCS at the levels predicted in some of the more optimistic scenarios from the IAEA the International Energy Authority that is still only around 40 percent of the overall carbon budget buys you about 40 years breathing space it is not a panacea or a solution and then idealized scenario looks at so you know several thousand commercial operation CCS facilities by 2050 that would mean several hundred a year being built opened and operated between now and 2050 you know it how many commercial operation CCS facilities do we have at the moment we have a number of pilots but no one has actually got a single facility to the commercial stage and a commercially operating plan is certainly not be too late for coal and it doesn't really hold out much hope for gas and what's also I think very dangerous about CCS consuming all of the oxygen in this debate is under every scenario and two degrees one and a half degrees etc we do need negative emissions there's you know no one I think is arguing about that but the debate around CCS is stopping us having a debate about where we get and where we can most effectively get those negative emissions from for example investment in land use land exchange of forestry and avoided deforestation and redd+ for example we have wonderful technology provided by nature for negative emissions as you've not been years in the making and and also you know humans have developed structures commercial structures and regulatory structures to develop those and is called red plus and there's a very robust regulatory regime around that and it you know per tonne of carbon captured it's significantly cheaper than CCS but I guess for many people it's not a big sexy engineering project and that's quite often what counts seems to count against it even though you know that doesn't make logical sense you know in responding my last question you mentioned the state of the coal industry briefly Donald Trump isn't sure you know campaigned on a promise to bring back whole globally there any evidence that in fact call is making a comeback after the election of Donald Trump no I mean it'll probably slow down you know the the make make the death of coal you even more painful and elongated but it's not going to stop it we've done two recent coal ports one looking at coal-fired generation in the United States so no place for coal gen and we did one in Europe you know both of those reports we show that the majority of coal-fired generation is having to operate at a loss and effectively subsidized so in the United States 78% coal-fired generation is now having to be subsidized by the u.s. ratepayers to compete with clean alternatives so most so US energy users are paying effectively a subsidy through their energy bills to keep that cold going and of course they get additional benefits like pollution and climate change and so forth for that subsidy that could be a 10 billion a year but by 2024 some in some US states that could be 10 percent of the energy bill in in the it's not quite as bad for coal in Europe at the moment because unlike you know we have a very liberalized markets in the u.s. is very regulated but it's about 59% of European coal-fired generation is operating at a loss and the rest is probably will be at a loss by 2030 2040 and is marginal at best so you know and it's quite an interesting paradigm shift because for many years in my career arguing around about renewables and waters almost being war it only works if it's subsidized but we've reached a point in many cases where coal when he works it was subsidized well this has been part one of our discussion with Anthony Hobley CEO of carbon tracker and thank you for joining us today Anthony welcome and this is Dimitri Lascaris for the real news network wiki dissertation fellowships 2018 Syracuse University.