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Lexistence precede lessence dissertation topics university admissions criteria uk hyperbole essays this is the Phoenix Arizona weather discussion for Tuesday the 20th of June I'm Michael Groff the summer solstice is here and what a way to kick off summer than with the hottest temperatures we've had in the valley in 22 years potentially a caveat to our weather though some moisture is starting to creep into the state and there could be some isolated showers and thunderstorms around this afternoon could we see some blowing dust here in the valley later today certainly a lot to talk about plus the rest of our week and the weekend and some forecast uncertainty too we'll get to it all as we look outside this morning here just after 5:00 a.m. some clouds in the valley right now 87 degrees to start the day at Sky Harbor dew points crept up just a bit to 46 relative humidity 24% the winds are calm the barometer is rising temperatures out there this morning mostly in the 80s across the valley near 90 in the urban core satellite shows some clouds sneaking into southeastern Arizona these are the leftovers the debris clouds from yesterday afternoon's convection across northern Mexico Southwest New Mexico in the southeastern part of our state on the watch warning map out here in the West the big story the excessive heat warnings that extend through much of southern and western Arizona Southern Nevada and much of California all the way up to the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys northern Arizona and along the west coast the immediate coast those are heat advisories meanwhile elsewhere in the country the big story continues to be the developing tropical cyclone in the Gulf when that ultimately is upgraded to a tropical storm and that's probably going to be later this morning it will get the name Cindy and so there are tropical storm warnings along the Gulf Coast there from Louisiana east to Biloxi Mississippi Mobile Alabama and along the Florida Panhandle tropical storm watches elsewhere flash flood watches as well on the convective outlook a slight risk of severe storms later today across parts of Kansas around Garden City Dodge City liberal and marginal risk of severe storms surrounding that another marginal risk zone along the immediate Gulf Coast with that developing tropical system and in parts of South Dakota and Montana as far as our weather let's get into the details of that right now as we take a look at the models and see what's going on this is the GFS it's the o-z unvalidated clock Mountain Standard Time today high pressure sitting right over top of us here in the southwest upper heights around 597 dr. meters have mostly sunny skies today but some clouds around especially this morning and this is where the forecast gets a little bit tricky high temperatures today are still going to be very hot we're still looking at anywhere from around 117 to 120 even though the atmospheric profile actually looks historically favorable for us to have the hottest day on record but some of those clouds around a little bit of added moisture in the atmosphere could help to hold down temperatures just a couple of degrees still 117 to 120 regardless of where we fall in that temperature range we'll break the record of 116 said just last year also isolated showers and thunderstorms developing later this afternoon let's look at some of the atmospheric profiles we're talking about it so here are the temperatures at 850 millibars is about 5000 feet up in the atmosphere 36 Celsius when we hit 122 all the way back on June 26 1990 looking at the weather balloon data on that day the 850 millibar temperature here in Phoenix was thirty five point eight Celsius the GFS is forecasting and 850 millibar temperature of 36 today so warmer than that day the 700 millibars temperatures about 10,000 feet up these are showing readings around 19 or 20 degrees Celsius so this shows you the atmosphere is extremely warm but you do see that slug of cooler air over there in the eastern part of the state today that's where some moisture will reside and showers and thunderstorms will be developing this afternoon this is the high res name tonight at 7 o'clock and you see as widely scattered showers and storms along the rim over the white mountains and even progressing into parts of central Pinal County and if that verifies certainly these would be high based storms we're not really worried about rain but lightning and blowing dust would be the big concern here's the 10 meter wind speeds at 7 p.m. tonight this just shows you what's going to be going on with the wind down here at the surface and you can see an area of stronger winds centered there across parts of Pima and Pinal and intruding upon Eastern Maricopa County as of 7:00 p.m. tonight and the high res models have been picking up on this and so we're watching the trend of maybe some blowing dust moving into the south-central deserts tonight certainly a possibility rain I don't think so blowing dust a possibility probably not your classic wall of dust setup that we have with some of these thunderstorms during the monsoon season as DS or this is more coming in from an easterly direction as opposed to southeasterly but still some patchy blowing dust around probably thicker dust across parts of Pinal County tonight all right after we get through all that tonight we'll still have some partly cloudy skies around lows in the low 80s to low 90s tomorrow is still going to be a toasty day as high pressure really isn't going anywhere might see the upper heights lower just a tad so highs tomorrow 115 to 118 will still break a record tomorrow I think the record high 116 Thursday's record might very well be in jeopardy as well with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures again right around 112 to 115 isolated showers and thunderstorms still could be possible in the far eastern part of our state I don't think we're going to see any more blowing dust after today for a while Friday looks mostly sunny highs 111 to 114 Saturday the ridge gets battered down just a little bit as a trough begins to develop off the Pacific Northwest Coast and high temperatures cool to the 109 to 112 range still well above normal but not quite record territory then on Sunday there's a lot of question marks starting to come in at this point the GFS is actually showing a bit more moisture starting to come into the Southwest states and so surface dew points will be on the rise and if this verifies we could have temperatures coming down a little bit further into the 107 to 110 range the European is on board with this idea as well but we're just going to have to see how this plays out you know once we start getting into the monsoon season looking at these things at six seven eight days out you know now we're starting to talk about mesoscale features and it's very hard to forecast these little moisture surges in these subtle features these are the disturbances that might rotate through so the models become less and less reliable the further out we go especially in the summer time during our monsoon nonetheless on Monday we still think some moisture is going to be coming in here from the south and southeast so isolated showers and thunderstorms in the eastern part of the state again mostly high based storms not a lot of rain mostly wind and lightning producers unfortunately here in the valley I think we're going to stay dry but could we see another blowing dust event Sunday or Monday sure not out of the question highs again 107 to 110 here's a week from today this is Tuesday the 27th of June and again high pressure is sitting just off to our East it has weakened here comes a trough and the flow aloft between those two South because maybe slightly South southwesterly could still import a little bit of moisture maybe a slight chance of a shower storm in the eastern part of the state we'll have to see about our area I think we're still going to stay dry and this is Wednesday the 28th high pressure sitting over New Mexico could see some moisture getting pushed on in here high temperatures again 106 to 109 I think we're going to go below that 1/10 resh hold here eventually whether it's Sunday Monday or Tuesday it's going to happen here as we go into next week and then this is the end of the forecast period Thursday the 29th of June there's a pretty decent trough to our West high pressure to our East southerly flow between those could still spell some moisture coming in here ultimately I think high temperatures come down a bit further to highs in the 104 to 107 range looking at the numbers off of the GFS ensemble it's got us at 119 today and tomorrow quite frankly I think tomorrow will be a little bit cooler because of all the convection that we're expecting around the state this afternoon and tonight those thunderstorms may cool off the atmosphere just a tiny bit but it's not like we're going to cool off dramatically tomorrow I would not break out the jackets anytime soon we're still going to be again 115 to 118 tomorrow and gradually ever so slowly but surely we'll be lowering those temperatures unfortunately the trade-off is is we start to get closer to that monsoon season the humidity is going to be coming up and those overnight temperatures aren't going to feel all that Pleasant and that will do it for the Phoenix Arizona weather discussion for today our next video back here tomorrow morning thanks so much as always for watching have a great Tuesday and stay cool out there everybody should file for copyright on my dissertation Graduate School of Journalism.